Latvia: what the 3 October election changes for businessesLatvia: what the 3 October election changes for businesses

A clear result, lower turnout

Six lists enter the 15th Saeima. The results are provisional: the Central Election Commission (CVK) had not yet approved them as of 5 October.

Two parties fall short of the 5% threshold:

• ZZS (4.4%), which sat in the outgoing government;
• Stabilitātei! (2.0%).

Turnout was around 51.7%, compared with 59.4% in 2022. It is the lowest since 1993.

The coalition has yet to be formed

A majority requires 51 seats. Apvienotais saraksts must therefore find partners.

Andris Kulbergs has ruled out a coalition with LPV. Before the vote, he had also excluded Suverēnā vara / Apvienība Jaunlatvieši. He has announced negotiations first with NA and JV, his current partners.

Several combinations are arithmetically possible:

• AS + NA + JV (58–59 seats): the combination most often cited by Latvian political scientists.
• AS + NA (51–52 seats): a very narrow majority.

President Edgars Rinkēvičs is consulting the elected parties. The new Saeima convenes on 3 November 2026.

What should remain stable

Several major decisions were taken before the vote:

• Defence: the law sets spending at a minimum of 5% of GDP from 2027.
• Russia and Belarus: on 1 October, the Saeima extended the embargo to food products. Other national restrictions are already in place.
• Rail Baltica: the government has capped the cost at €20 million per kilometre. The deadline has been pushed back to 2034. A minimum scenario is expected in December.
• Budget: the 2027 budget must close a gap of €421 million. Adoption is targeted before Christmas.

What could change

The programmes of the outgoing coalition parties point to several shifts:

• more stable taxation, with fewer frequent revisions;
• simplified public procurement and centralised state IT;
• stricter rules on workers from third countries;
• a review of how the green transition is implemented.

The details will depend on the coalition agreement and the 2027 budget.

What this means for French companies

Budget constraints will weigh on new public projects. Sectors underpinned by decisions already taken offer the best short-term prospects:

• defence and security;
• energy and power grids;
• infrastructure, with a focus on cost control.

Several French companies are directly involved in Rail Baltica, including Eiffage, Systra and Egis. Health and digital deserve close attention, with a hospital reform planned from 2027.

What we will be following

• government formation and the allocation of economic ministries;
• the 2027 budget and its sectoral trade-offs;
• the revised Rail Baltica scenario;
• defence procurement and energy projects.

CCEF.LV does not take sides with any political party. This analysis reports the parties’ public positions and official decisions.